24.06.2021: US labor market freezing (S&P500, DXY, USD/CAD, BTC/USD)

The US stock market logged a robust rally for the two last days. The Nasdaq closed on Tuesday at a new all-time high and extended its growth on Wednesday. The other key stock indices are also trading not far away from the highest marks of the year, ready to conquer new peaks. What factors could push US stocks to new historic highs? The market seems to anticipate upbeat macroeconomic data.
The market catalyst has been recognized. A weekly update on the US labor market surpassed the data for the previous week. Besides, initial unemployment claims came in beyond expectations. This is certainly a bullish sign for market participants.
Now let’s discuss what is going on in detail!
We see that the market has already responded to the data on jobless claims. The S&P 500 climbed from 4,240 to 4,260 points which is one of the latest record highs. Such developments match our forecasts. Now we can affirm that the index is likely to trade in the corridor of 4,280 to 4,295 tomorrow.
At the same time, the US dollar index has found support at near 91.50 during its decline. Meanwhile, the US dollar’s move looks like a moderate downward retracement after a rapid rally emerged in light of the Fed’s policy announcements. The index now stands at 91.70. It is expected to trade in the corridor of 91.50 to 92.00 in the near time. Experts predict a further advance of the greenback. However, it is likely to go through a long consolidation before that. The dollar’s growth is subdued by soothing remarks from the Fed’s Chairman. Jerome Powell assures the market that the rising consumer inflation does not pose any challenge. So, a further trajectory of the US dollar will depend on new inflation data for June.
While the greenback is taking a pause, its Canadian rival is again reinforced by high oil prices. By the way, oil is trading higher on the back of shrinking US crude inventories and increasing energy demand during the travel season. Today the USD/CAD pair is trading at about 1.2290. It is likely to hold in the corridor of 1.2230 to 1.2350 in the near time.
Importantly, the Canadian economy is suffering from the overvalued national currency. The negative effect from the strong loonie will subdue its strength sooner or later. Perhaps 1.2000 will serve as long-term support for the USD/CAD pair.
When it comes to the crypto market, Bitcoin has been trapped inside a narrow range for the second day in a row. We predicted this yesterday. So, the most popular cryptocurrency is still trading at about 33,900 dollars that comes as no surprise. Meanwhile, the crypto market is trying to regain footing amid the lack of any catalysts. The number one digital token is set to trade in the range of 33,950 to 34,500 dollars tomorrow. If the price manages to hold firmly above the level of 34,000, we will see a further moderate climb.
Trading activity on Wall Street is ebbing away in the summer. Besides, the US stock market suggests high prices of shares. Will the macroeconomic data, which is due today, propel a new bullish wave? There are all preconditions for a further uptrend.
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00:00 Growth of US indices
00:33 US Initial Unemployment Claims
00:55 S & P500
01:25 DXY
02:25 USD / CAD
03:14 Bitcoin
03:56 Results

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