14.08.2020: USD downtrend not over yet (USDХ, DJIA, WTI, BTC, USD/CAD)

Wall Street is trading with moderately negative market sentiment. Fears about the global economic recovery have resurfaced among investors. Waning confidence and a jump in US bond yields enabled the US dollar to regain some losses. However, weak retail sales pushed the greenback down. WTI is struggling for the level of 42 dollars a barrel. Bitcoin aims to reach 14,000 dollars per token.
Futures on the Dow Jones were 0.27% down at 27,749 in the early New York trade. Besides, the S&P 500 shed 0.16% to trade at 3,365.12. In contrast, the Nasdaq was trading marginally higher.
Investors’ confidence sapped again, partially due to downbeat macroeconomic data from China. This factor makes a short-term effect on the markets, so other events will be more significant. Tomorrow the US and Chins are holding a new round of the trade talks. Investors hope that the parties will be able to soften their mutual rhetoric.
The US dollar is about to begin an upward correction. Nevertheless, it was wavering between gains and losses before the publication of retail sales data. Following the report, the US dollar again moved downwards against the basket of six major currencies. Retail sales in the US fell short of market expectations. The indicator rose 1.2% in July on month, much weaker than the expected 1.9% gain.
So, the US dollar index sank below the level of 93.20. The medium-term outlook remains bearish. Everyone knows that it is extremely dangerous to trade against the trend.
Investors are fretted that US lawmakers are still in gridlock being unable to settle the coronavirus stimulus bill aimed at households and businesses. The lack of the coronavirus financial aid poses a threat to the fragile recovery of the US economy and consumer activity. The retail sales report released today confirms these fears.
The Canadian dollar is certainly benefitting from the weakness of its American peer. After 1.3250 is broken, the USD/CAD pair is expected to decline lower to 1.3175. Meanwhile, the pair is making a minor upward correction. The alternative scenario is the upward reversal. If the price stays firmly above 1.33, the door will be open to 1.3350 and even higher.
Today crude oil is losing ground. WTI is trading at near 42-43 dollars a barrel. If the US – China trade talks end with a negative tenor, the petroleum market could open a new trading week with sell-offs.
Earlier in the week, bitcoin made another attempt to fix above the level of 12,000 dollars, but the efforts were in vain. The number one cryptocurrency is making a downward correction. On Friday, bitcoin spiked almost 2% to nearly 11,800 dollars per token. Crypto analysts say that the most popular digital currency is in a consolidation stage trading between 11,600 and 11,800. Meanwhile, other popular cryptocurrency, ethereum, amazes with its rally. So, bitcoin is likely to repeat a step. If this prediction comes true, the crypto bulls will be able to push the price as high as 14,000 dollars.
The bitcoin dominance index is going lower. This indicates growing demand for altcoins in general. Apparently, investors are getting more interested in the crypto market like it was in 2017. It is vitally important for bitcoin to extend its winning streak. It is the catalyst for interest among crypto investors.

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